El Nino: Past, Present, and Future Essay -- Natural Science essays

El Nino: Past, Present, and Future El Nino is both an atmospheric and oceanic phenomenon affecting weather patterns all around the world. It is complemented by La Nina in a cycle that occurs approximately every 4 years, varying as much as every two years to every six years (Wang 1999, 3331). La Nina has almost the opposite effect, however differs in its strength and duration randomly, as does El Nino (Fedorov 2000, 1998). The cycle is often paraphrased as ENSO, standing for El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Flugel 1997, 3230). It is called this because the El Nino phenomenon is especially strong in the Southern Hemisphere, and has greater effects in areas of the pacific near the equator. Although ENSO is prominent in certain areas, it alters weather patterns all around the world. The El Nino pattern can be quite random with and approximate range of 2 to 6 years per cycle, and is a loaded gun believed to be triggered by western winds (Fedorov 2000, 1997). Many scientists are now looking to the past for answers, so the El N ino cycle can be predicted for the years to come. New discoveries have recently been made on El Nino's history, and possible future. Recent El Nino's and La Nina's have shown that there is no effect of the strength and duration of one on the other (Fedorov 2000, 1998). The last one in 1997 was among the strongest, next to the 1982 El Nino (Fedorov 1997). Although the ENSO is relatively unpredictable, some scientists believe it to be dependent upon the intensity of trade winds and the depth of the thermocline (Fedorov 2000, 1997). A thermocline is the layer of water that rests between the upper and lower layer water that are categorized by the water temperature (Fedorov 2000, 1997). For example, off the coast of Peru... ... could argue that these alterations from the normal ENSO cycle could be due to global warming. Right now more research is being conducted, which would be necessary to prove this theory. Only time can tell us whether we will need to beware of El Nino's wrath in the future or whether El Nino will be tapering out. Works Cited Fedorov, Alexey V. and S. George Philander. "Is El Nino Changing?". Science: vol. 288, June 16, 2000, pp. 1997-2001. Flugel, Moritz and Ping Chang. "Does the Predictability of ENSO Depend on the Seasonal Cycle?". Journal of Atmospheric Sciences: vol. 55, No. 21, pp. 3230-3243. Kerr, Richard A. "El Nino Grew Strong As Cultures Were Born". Science: vol. 283, Jan 22, 1999, pp. 467-468. Wang, Risheng and Bin Wang. "Phase Space Representation and Characteristics of El Nino-La Nina". Journal of Atmospheric Sciences: vol. 57, No. 19, pp. 3315-3333.